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Abbiasov, T (2021) Essays in Urban Economics, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Columbia University.
Asgari, S (2016) Modeling construction competitive bidding: An agent-based approach, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Columbia University.
Chang, H-H (2002) N-dimensional construction management information system (NDCON): System design and performance modeling through the zero -buffered project management philosophy, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Columbia University.
Chen, S-M (2002) Intelligent scheduling model and multi-dimensional CM information system, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Columbia University.
Chiara, N (2006) Real option methods for improving economic risk management in infrastructure project finance, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Columbia University.
- Type: Thesis
- Keywords: flexibility; guarantees; private sector; real options; build-operate-transfer; financing; government; infrastructure project; programming; project finance; risk management; case study; Monte Carlo simulation
- ISBN/ISSN:
- URL: https://www.proquest.com/docview/305358715
- Abstract:
Effective risk management is essential for success in infrastructure project financing arrangements such as Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT). Both Sponsors and Lenders consider the revenue risk an extremely important factor when they assess a BOT project's feasibility. One potential strategy for mitigating the revenue risk is a revenue guarantee, where a guarantor secures a minimum amount of revenue for a project, and such guarantees take the form of a put option. Current valuation techniques: (a) lack the flexibility to structure these options in a manner that is affordable to the Government and attractive to the Private Sector, and (b) presume that a single guarantor, i.e. the Government, will underwrite the guarantee. These shortcomings open a research opportunity to explore the development of methods to value more flexible and affordable revenue risk mitigation contracts. This research presents a novel valuation framework that supports developing new types of revenue risk mitigation contracts. The approach provides BOT project participants with far more flexibility than prevailing methods. In the framework, the contracts are modeled as multiple-exercise real options and valued by two new valuation methods, the Multi-Least Squares Monte Carlo method (MLSM) and the Multi-Exercise Boundary method (MEB), which were derived by extending option theory. These two methods successfully combine Monte Carlo simulation and dynamic programming techniques to price multiple-exercise real options. A hypothetical case study illustrates the application and the potential of the two methods to serve as tools for risk mitigation in BOT projects. In addition, the general nature of the framework increases the scope of its applicability beyond the area of infrastructure project finance. It is flexible enough to assess any type of contract with multiple-exercise option characteristics.
Fitch, G J (2019) System dynamics models for the valuation of real options in infrastructure investments, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Columbia University.
Gerstenberger, A J (2021) Modeling the likelihood of construction incidents using public data, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Teachers College, Columbia University.
Gocmen, F C (2014) Infrastructure scaling and pricing, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Columbia University.
He, Y (2006) Earthquake loss and risk estimation of buildings by Monte Carlo simulation, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Columbia University.
Hogan, D B (1998) Modeling construction cost performance: A comprehensive approach using statistical, artificial neural network and simulation methods, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Columbia University.
Kokkaew, N (2010) Risk flexibility analysis in infrastructure project finance, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Columbia University.
Li, W (1995) Benefit and cost analysis: Three-dimensional computer models with integrated databases in the management of construction, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Columbia University.
Lu, Z (2018) Feasibility assessment framework for financing public-private partnership infrastructure projects through asset-backed security, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Columbia University.
Silver, M L (1981) Craft production: Work and alienation in the construction industry, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Columbia University.
Song, X (2013) The application of insurance as a risk management tool for alternative dispute resolution (ADR) implementation in construction disputes, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Columbia University.
Sturts, C S (2001) Value-bidding: An integrative approach utilizing conjoint analysis and classical bidding theory, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Columbia University.
Subsomboon, K (2004) A procurement and material management (PMM) system based on the fully integrated and automated project process (FIAPP), Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Columbia University.
Sun, W (2023) A self-localized smart hardhat system for construction 4.0, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Columbia University.
Tavakolan, M (2011) Development of construction projects scheduling with evolutionary algorithms, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Columbia University.
Teferra, K (2012) Developments in the theory and applications of the variability response function concept, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Columbia University.
Ucbenli, C (2010) A bargaining mechanism with incomplete information and its application in trilateral BOT negotiations, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Columbia University.
Unsal, H I (2010) Modeling the hold-up problem and absorptive capacity of project networks, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Columbia University.
Wang, W (2010) Multivariate stochastic copula-based deterioration models in infrastructure economic risk management, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Columbia University.